At least that seems to be the prevailing public sentiment about Tennessee taking Carlson, a shortstop/righty who is the No. 5 player in the high school class of 2025.
It’s true that Carlson’s talent makes him a potential first-round pick if the MLB draft were tomorrow. The same goes for fourth-ranked Kruz Schoolcraft, an uncommitted lefty/first baseman who is 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds with recent visits to Tennessee, Texas A&M, Oregon State and Florida.
But the project is not tomorrow, it is in July. A lot can change in eight months.
So how often do elite high school prospects end up on campus? Let’s look at what the data from recent courses shows.
Our coverage of high school players has grown significantly in recent years. Right after the draft wrapped up the last three cycles, we released an updated ranking of the top 100 players in the high school class for the upcoming year. So for the 2023 and 2024 classes, we have data on the top 100 players a full year after the draft and whether they signed or went to college.
That mid-July period is the start of summer for major league scouts, whose main focus is still on the current year’s draft. So these rankings come before major events later on the circuit, such as the East Coast Pro, Area Code Games, some of the big All-American events, and the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter, Florida, which is played every October.
It’s not the exact time frame we’re looking at right now with a player like Carlson or Schoolcraft, but we can look at those lists and answer an important question: A year after the draft, how often does a high school prospect end up top opting out of the draft next summer?
Let’s look at the data from the classes of 2023 and 2024 individually, then the combined results. We can group players into different groups based on where they fit on the roster:
- Top 10 players
- Top 25 players
- Players 26-50
- Players 51-100
Now let’s look at the results of those tiers and the list of the top 25 players in those classes one year after the draft.
Class of 2023
- Top 10 players: 2 in 10 (20%) went to college
- Top 25 players: 10 out of 25 (40%) went to college
- Players 26-50: 15 out of 25 (60%) went to college
- played 51-100: 40 out of 50 (80%) went to college
- Overall Top 50: 25 out of 50 (50%) went to college
- Top 100 overall: 65 out of 100 (65%) went to college
When the numbers ended up looking so clean, it made me double check the results, but that’s how it lined up.
The only two top-10 players to go to college were shortstop Dylan Cupp, who started 21 games for Mississippi State in 2024, and catcher Campbell Smithwick, a strong Ole Miss commit who went to high school eight minutes from Swayze Field and played in 30 games. for the rebels as an 18-year-old.
Among the top 50 players who went to college, Texas A&M third baseman Gavin Grahovac and LSU shortstop Steven Milam (No. 26) were both Freshman All-Americans, while Tre Phelps (No. 37) made the Freshman All-American second team.
Even among the top 25 players in a class one year after the draft, there were 40% who went to college and a 50/50 chance of a top 50 player going to school, though the odds were lower for the highest ranked players. .
Top 25 players for 2023
| Rk | Player | Item | Pro/College |
| 1 | Max Clark | OF | Pro |
| 2 | Walker Jenkins | OF | Pro |
| 3 | Kevin McGonagall | SS | Pro |
| 4 | Dylan Cupp | SS | College |
| 5 | Thomas White | LHP | Pro |
| 6 | Antonio Anderson | SS | Pro |
| 7 | Eric Bitonti | SS | Pro |
| 8 | Aidan Miller | 3B | Pro |
| 9 | Noble Meyer | RHP | Pro |
| 10 | Campbell Smithwick | C | College |
| 11 | Blake Mitchell | C | Pro |
| 12 | Gavin Grahovac | 3B | College |
| 13 | Bryce Eldridge | 1B/RHP | Pro |
| 14 | Roch Cholowsky | SS | College |
| 15 | Travis Sykora | RHP | Pro |
| 16 | Charlie Soto | RHP | Pro |
| 17 | Roman Martin | SS | College |
| 18 | Cameron Johnson | LHP | College |
| 19 | Braden Holcomb | SS | College |
| 20 | Aidan Keenan | RHP | College |
| 21 | Colt Emerson | SS | Pro |
| 22 | Zander Mueth | RHP | Pro |
| 23 | Ryder Helfrick | C | College |
| 24 | Ralphy Velazquez | C | Pro |
| 25 | Derek Schaefer | RHP | College |
Class of 2024
- Top 10 players: 7 of the top 10 (70%) went to college
- Top 25 players: 15 out of 25 (60%) went to college
- Players 26-50: 15 out of 25 (60%) went to college
- Players 51-100: 41 out of 50 (82%) went to college
- Overall Top 50: 30 out of 50 (60%) went to college
- Top 100 overall: 71 out of 100 (71%) went to college
The results are a bit messier with the class of 2024. The high school class of 2023 was loaded, while we’ve said for years that 2024 lacked the typical elite talent at the top. A year after that draft, it felt like Konnor Griffin was the only player who was a high-probability first-round pick, and it continued to be that way. Griffin went 9th overall to the Pirates as the only high school player in the top 10 and was one of only two high school players in the top 15 picks, even against a college class that wasn’t particularly strong either.
The 2024 class was more confusing, but that’s mostly because of the top 25 players. The results are almost identical in the 26-50 groups for 2023 (60%) versus 2024 (60%) and in the 51-100 groups for 2023 (80%) versus 2024 (82%).
That makes me feel more confident that the college vs pro results we’ll see for players in the 26-100 range will continue to hold steady. Some classes are deeper than others and you can feel it in the quality of players behind the top 100, but usually the biggest differences in quality are in the caliber of players in the top 10 or top 25 players.
What happened at the top though? I think there are a few things:
• The 2024 high school class lacked premium talent that made it difficult to separate the best players a year into the draft, especially compared to the 2023 class. Looking ahead, the 2025 class is better than 2024, and the 2026 class would could be the best since 2023.
• There were several high-profile players ranked in the top 10 in 2024 who are good prospects that MLB teams liked but simply didn’t pick for various reasons. Outfielder Derek Curiel (LSU) withdrew his name from the draft, although he would not have been a first-round pick if he had stayed. Shortstop Charlie Bates (Stanford) and righty Tegan Kuhns (Tennessee) were both top-100 draft prospects who had strong commitments and high prices, with Curiel and Kuhns both high enough to be draft-eligible graduates in 2026. During 11-25. Range, right-hander William Schmidt was the No. 1 high school pitcher. 2 on our draft board, but on draft day, he told teams not to pick him because he was going to LSU.
• I’m the one making the rankings, so I have to point the finger at myself here and say I did a better job lining up the top of the 2023 class than I did with 2024.
Top 25 players for 2024
| Rk | Player | Item | Pro/College |
| 1 | Connor Griffin | SS | Pro |
| 2 | Derek Curiel | OF | College |
| 3 | Owen Weight | SS | College |
| 4 | PJ Morlando | OF | Pro |
| 5 | Michael Mullinax | OF | College |
| 6 | Bryce Rainer | SS | Pro |
| 7 | Arrambide falls | C | College |
| 8 | Brendan Lawson | SS | College |
| 9 | Charlie Bates | SS | College |
| 10 | Tegan Kuhns | RHP | College |
| 11 | Cam Caminiti | LHP | Pro |
| 12 | JD Dix | SS | Pro |
| 13 | Bryce Clavon | SS | College |
| 14 | Joey Oakie | RHP | Pro |
| 15 | Cassan Evans | RHP | College |
| 16 | Levi Clark | C | College |
| 17 | William Schmidt | RHP | College |
| 18 | Owen Hall | RHP | Pro |
| 19 | Theodore Gillen | SS | Pro |
| 20 | Noah Franco | OF/LHP | College |
| 21 | Anson Seibert | RHP | College |
| 22 | Chase Mobley | RHP | Pro |
| 23 | Carson Wiggins | RHP | College |
| 24 | Slade Caldwell | OF | Pro |
| 25 | Erik Parker | SS | College |
Combined data
- Top 10 players: 9 out of 20 went to college (45%)
- Top 25 players: 25 out of 50 went to college (50%)
- 26-50 players: 30 out of 50 went to college (60%)
- 51-100 players: 81 out of 100 went to college (81%)
- Overall Top 50: 55 out of 100 went to college (55%)
- Top 100 overall: 136 out of 200 went to college (68%)
What to expect next
I would bet that the results of groups 26-50 and 51-100 will probably continue to stand. For the top 10 and top 25 prospects, we can look at overall average as a guideline, but it may be better to look at 2023 and 2024 as the potential distribution of results given the disparity in quality of these classes. The pool of top 10 prospects is smaller than players Nos. 26-50 or Nos. 51-100, so the smaller sample should be subject to more variance. It may be true that a top 25 player a year after the draft has a 50/50 chance of making it to college, but I would expect those results to fluctuate more from year to year, depending on the quality of the player pool. and other factors that could affect a player’s leverage on a case-by-case basis.
MLB shortened the draft to 20 rounds in 2021 and dropped 40 minor league teams, all of which have downstream effects on the number of players going to college instead of retiring from high school. We are also in a time of radical change in the NCAA landscape. NIL money is becoming more and more influential. Teams could soon go from a limit of 11.7 full scholarships to being able to have 34 players on full scholarships.
That won’t change anything for a top-five overall pick like Tigers outfielder Max Clark or Twins outfielder Walker Jenkins, but for the first-rounder, the potential to spend two or three years in college debt-free and making six figures in NIL money while playing in packed SEC stadiums in the spring and spending the summer on Cape Cod with a chance at that bonus again out of college might hold more appeal than busing through the Carolina League and Midwest League.
If you’re an Oklahoma State fan, I wouldn’t get too excited about the potential of seeing shortstop Ethan Holliday — the longtime No. 1 pick for 2025 — ever hitting in the middle of the Cowboys lineup. We’re still a little more than eight months away from hitting this calendar for the 2026 class, but shortstops Grady Emerson (TCU) and Jacob Lombard (uncommitted) are the top two players in that class, and both look like potential top-10 overall picks.
Even if Lombard is likely to opt out of the draft, schools will still apply full-court press to recruit him because there are elite players of his caliber making it to college. When they do, like LSU outfielder Dylan Crews or Vanderbilt right-handers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, they give the program a shot at a potential superstar.
Those top 10 and top 25 players in a class are harder to get on campus than players lower in the top 100. However, a player can have a tough summer in the bigs, a spring that doesn’t measure up to the level of expectation. of scouts, high bonus demands beyond what teams are willing to pay within their bonus pool, or other factors driving him to college.
One year out from the draft, we can be directionally accurate about players looking to come out of high school, but predicting the future of players who are 16 and 17 years old is not an exercise in precision. There is much more to the picture that will come into sharper focus on draft day.
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