The Bearcat Journal offers five bold predictions ahead of Cincinnati’s season opener on Monday against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Note: These predictions are not connected, it’s not an “if this, then that” thing. Look at each prediction as if it were isolated and separate.
Dan Skillings Jr. Wins 12th Player of the Year, Becomes First Round Pick in 2025 NBA Draft
He showed he made the leap many expected him to make in year two.
Skillings scored in double figures in the final eight games last season, averaging 16.3 points per game, including a 25-point night in Cincinnati’s Big 12 Tournament win over Kansas and 20 points in the NIT win of of the Bearcats against Bradley. During those eight games, he shot just 21 percent (7-33) from beyond the arc. Skillings talked about his improved shooting from last season, even saying that he’s made an even bigger leap with his entire game this coming season than he did before last year.
He might be the best finisher on the board in Cincinnati’s offense, and if he can develop into a dangerous three-point shooter, the sky’s the limit for the Philadelphia native.
Cincinnati remains undefeated in non-conference standings, sneaks into AP top-10 ahead of Big 12 play
Given that UC doesn’t fall in one of its buyout games, the Bearcats have a real chance to go undefeated in non-conference play, and this prediction is probably the least bold of the five. Below are some notes on the Bearcats’ biggest non-conference game and why I think it could happen:
The Nordics are one step above a buyout game, but they obviously present a bigger challenge, especially since they can host the Bearcats this season. The group beat Wes Miller’s team two years ago and isn’t someone to look past, especially being the precursor to Georgia Tech, Villanova, Xavier and Dayton.
The Yellow Jackets lost three players who played more than 15 minutes per game last season, including their best player from a season ago, Miles Kelly, who transferred to Auburn. Damon Stoudamire was able to bring in Oklahoma transfer Javian McCullom to improve his backfield. True freshman Jaedan Mustaf comes in as the Yellow Jackets’ top-rated recruit and transfer Ryan Mutombo, son of Dikembe Mutumbo, comes from Georgetown and loads up the frontcourt. However, I think UC is using the confidence from their 38-point win over GT a season ago to get a win on the road.
The Wildcats have a completely overhauled roster. Their leading scorer, Justin Moore, was ineligible last season. They also lost Tyler Burton, Hakim Hart, Mark Armstrong, Brendan Hausen, TJ Bamba and Lance Ware. Eric Dixon and Jordan Longino are two of the few returning starters, and head coach Kyle Neptune has filled the roster with veteran players with little eligibility to make a team. Cincinnati should be able to go to Philadelphia and beat an early season team that will likely have to spend a lot of time finding its identity before Big East play.
This one is obvious. Xavier is Xavier, and Crosstown Shootout is Crosstown Shootout. Many expected Cincinnati to go to the Cintas Center last season and win after the Musketeers dropped early season home contests to Delaware and Bryant. However, Quincy Olivari had his most efficient shooting night of his season as a Musketeer, shooting 6-8 from beyond the arc and scoring 27 points.
Olivari now plays for the Lakers, so Cincinnati doesn’t have to deal with the high-volume scorer. Additionally, talented guard Desmond Claude, who was the Muskies’ second-leading scorer last season at 16.6 points per game, transferred to play for Eric Musselman at USC. Head coach Sean Miller brings back Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter. He also made a big splash in landing Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell. Look for Xavier to be one of the best offensive teams in the country in the 2024-25 season. However, with a big crowd at Fifth Third Arena and six returning players knowing what it’s like to never beat Xavier, I expect the Bearcats to come out on top on December 13th.
Anthony Grant has dealt with a lot in the transfer window after a successful 2023-24. Leading scorer DaRon Holmes has turned pro. Third-leading scorer Koby Brea transferred to Kentucky, and fourth-leading scorer Kobe Elvis is now with Porter Moser at Oklahoma. Nate Santos entered the portal, but ultimately decided to return to the Flyers.
Grant added Ohio State transfer Zed Key, Butler’s Posh Alexander and Marshall’s Jacob Conner. It would be a surprise for Dayton to repeat after last season’s solid showing. If Cincinnati can enter the Dec. 20 game at Heritage Bank undefeated and six days off a win over Xavier, it might not be a 70/30 split with Dayton fans running the arena like it was last season.
Cincinnati goes 15-5 in the Big 12, 8-2 @ home
The two home losses will be to Kansas and Baylor. The three road losses at the hands of Iowa State, Houston and Baylor. This might be even bolder than the last prediction you are about to read. A 15-5 conference record should put Cincinnati as a top 2-3 team in the Big 12 by season’s end. UC has the depth to be in great position during the bleak months of February when the Big 12 standings begin to change in a big way.
Nine of Cincinnati’s 20 conference games come against the likes of Utah, BYU, Colorado, Oklahoma State and UCF.
Simas Lukošius leads Cincinnati in scoring, named to First Team Big 12
Lukošius was Cincinnati’s best offensive weapon to end the 2024 season. He went absolutely bonkers from beyond the arc in the final 10 games of the season, making it clear he was healthy after being hit by a car earlier in the season and shoulder injury. In that span, he made 42 percent from three (40-95). He went 7-12 for 31 points against West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament and 8-10 for 28 points, including a buzzer-beater over San Francisco in the NIT.
Hr will likely be where the Bearcats will turn for big hits in big situations. He told reporters at media days in Kansas City that he plans to come down more often. Getting more of a three-point threat will help his overall game. As Cincinnati’s best free throw shooter that will also help his points per game stat.
Cincinnati makes the Elite Eight in the NCAA Tournament
The Bearcats have the depth and talent to do that. If it meshes well and Day Day Thomas is healthy, there are few parts of this team’s game that will be missing. Most players are battle tested, so long losing streaks (more than 2 losses in a row) will be few and far between. That will be tested to start the Big 12 season by visiting Kansas State, then hosting Arizona, visiting Baylor and then hosting Kansas in four straight conference games.
Look for Cincinnati to demonstrate its late-season durability and fitness during those four games.
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