Another week, another round of crucial kickoff/session decisions. To help you create them, here’s a look at six players with potential to lose in Week 9.
Something to keep in mind as you read: A “fade” or “drop” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on the waiver wire.
QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray’s expectations were sky high heading into the 2024 season, one year removed from a torn ACL that ended his 2022 campaign and armed with a new weapon: rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.
Unfortunately, despite Murray positioning himself as the QB8 going into the season, it’s been a bumpier ride than expected. He fell outside the top-10 weekly QBs in five of eight weeks, including three finishes as QB18 or worse. While he has had plenty of rushing this season with five games of 45+ rushing yards (2 TDs), Murray has shown more volatility as a passer; had less than 215 passing yards in six of eight games and just two multi-TD performances.
This week, the Cardinals will face the Chicago Bears – a top-five coverage unit with a 76.3 PFF grade through eight weeks of the season. They allow the 12th fewest passing yards per attempt (6.81), the eighth fewest yards per completion (4.9), and a 2.2% touchdown and pass percentage NFL (76.2) allowed eighth most. forced interception rate (3.1%).
Yes…they are good.
Expect a potentially disappointing week for Murray against a defense that held star rookie Jayden Daniels to a QB11 finish just last week despite 378 total yards on the day.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Murray a “Fade Lite” this week. He’s still a starter in fantasy lineups, but this could be one of the more volatile weeks we’ve seen yet for a QB still looking for week-to-week consistency.
RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Second year RB Bucky Irving made a big statement when given the opportunity to lead the Bucs quarterback due to an injury to RB1 Rachaad White. However, in the last two weeks since White’s return, they have kept the faithful at their word about deploying a three-headed monster in the back.
In Week 9, the Buccaneers will face a stout Kansas City Chiefs defense that currently allows the third-lowest EPA per carry at -0.19 and the eighth-lowest rushing success rate at 37.4 %. They are giving up a league-low 11.69 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
In addition to Kansas City’s strength in run defense, the weaknesses of Tampa Bay’s defense could certainly spark something on offense for the Chiefs, who will play their second game with WR DeAndre Hopkins this week following a trade from Tennessee. If that’s the case, since the Bucs are underdogs by 8.5 points in this outing, they could be forced out of the running game pretty quickly. Although White played just 10 more snaps than Irving just last week, he ran 28 routes to Irving’s 16, giving him a greater opportunity to succeed in this setting.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Irving more of a volatile flex game in Week 9 than a must-start.
RB JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
The former Baltimore Raven is off to a hot start in LA this year, shocking just about everyone with 266 rushing yards and two scores in the first two weeks of the season. During that time, Dobbins ranked as the RB4 overall in half-PPR scoring formats, but has since faltered; Dobbins ranked RB30 as of Week 3, with just one game of 15 or more fantasy points in that span. Although he averaged 17 rush attempts per game in Weeks 3-8, he was incredibly ineffective, ranking last among RBs with 3.16 yards per attempt and 2.12 yards after contact per attempt (min. 25% of offensive snaps played).
This week, Dobbins will face a new Cleveland Browns defense that has safety Juan Thornhill back — a capable run defender when healthy. Thornhill has been out of the lineup for most of this season, landing on IR with a calf injury after the season opener. However, his presence now gives this defense already allowing the 12th-lowest EPA per carry (-0.06) and 10th-lowest completion rate (37.7%) per NFL Next Gen Statistics
Heat check 🔥 Dobbins is off to a good start considering he averages just under 19 touches per game; after all, how often do you find this kind of workload for a RB? However, it is best to expect another low-scoring outing.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins offense took a big step forward in Week 8, with Tua Tagovailoa back at the helm, scoring a season-high 27 points and rushing for his most yards since Week 1’s win over the Jaguars – good stuff but not great. Neither Tyreek Hill (6-72-0) nor Jaylen Waddle (4-45-0) had much success, but it was a plus to at least see some progress on offense.
This week, the Dolphins travel to Buffalo for a meeting with the Bills, who are currently allowing punts on wide receivers this year, giving up a league-low -0.27 EPA per pass attempt per NFL Pro. . Waddle has historically struggled against the franchise in most of their previous meetings, with fewer than 50 receiving yards in five of seven games against its AFC East rival.
Waddle just recorded his sixth straight game as a fantasy WR4 or worse and is still looking for his first score of the season. Never mind that it will happen this week against a defense that has yet to allow a 12-point fantasy day to any opposing WR at home this year. This projects as a better game for Hill, who works more often in the middle of the field and can exploit the Bills at safety.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Waddle more of a flexible boom/bust play this week than a must-start.
WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
The former second-round pick of the Packers has been in a bit of a slump lately, averaging just 31 receiving yards per game (93 receiving yards, 1 total TD) over the last three weeks – a stark contrast to the “boom” we saw earlier in the season, posting two games of 138+ yards receiving and a score in the first four weeks. Reed was a perfect embodiment of the frustrating task of trying to predict the Packers’ passing game on any given week. Unfortunately, a matchup with the Detroit Lions in Week 9 (as kind as it looks on paper – they give up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs) may not be what brings Reed back on the right track.
Of the Packers’ players, Reed has been the most likely to fumble against man coverage this season, which the Lions run at the second-highest rate in the league. Despite leading the team in total targets this season, Reed saw just 15.7 percent of them against a man — the lowest rate of most Packers with at least 20 targets this year. He caught just three of his eight targets against a man for eight total receiving yards (2.7 yards per reception) with four total drops and a passer rating of just 45.8. Yes.
Heat check 🔥 I’m a big believer in Reed’s talent and value throughout the season, but I view Reed as more of a boom/bust flex than a potential rebounder.
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Sophomore Tucker Kraft is the latest flash in fantasy football, and for good reason. After a slow start this year, Kraft has been on an absolute tear; over the last five games, his 17-game streak has averaged a ridiculous 61-901-17 stat line, which would undoubtedly earn him a TE1 finish on the season. Despite this ridiculous stat line (and a position as TE3 per year), Kraft achieved only two top-5 positions at the position in that range.
Heading into Week 9, the Packers will face the uncertainty of whether or not QB Jordan Love will be available for them after suffering a groin injury (and if he is, whether or not he’ll be 100 percent). If Love is out, it will be Malik Willis at QB; Kraft ranks fourth on the team in targets from Willis this year behind Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs. The Lions are allowing a -0.57 EPA on targets to TEs this year after Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson both take 6.8 fantasy points during their outings this season.
Heat check 🔥 As has been the case with most of the tight ends on the fades list this year, there aren’t many TEs you can afford to really sit on from week to week; if you find a player with even marginal upside, you’ll probably set him in your lineups. Kraft is no exception given the upside he’s shown in previous weeks, but it’s best to temper expectations for his potential to boom in Week 9.
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