This week’s Make or Break article focuses on a key aspect of success for borderline players: opportunity. Volume is king in fantasy football and when the time comes for an increased opportunity, can you take advantage?
I’ve got two running backs and a wide receiver plus two tight ends with interesting opportunities this week – and a potentially creative use that could give you an edge to win the league.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Just when we were starting to feel more confident in Javonte Williams, he hit us with a seven-point performance in what should have been an excellent game against the Panthers. The problem was not opportunity. Williams had 17 carries and four receptions. They just gave up 52 total yards, and he was outscored by Jaleel McLaughlin, who managed more yards on half carries and added a touchdown.
This brings back awkward flashbacks to earlier in the season, when Williams seemed constantly on the verge of losing his job and was underperforming. However, I wouldn’t anticipate a sudden change in snaps or taps. Even with McLaughlin outplaying Williams in previous games, Sean Payton never got away from Williams. Still, it’s a bit of a concern, especially given this week’s matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defense that was vulnerable against the pass and tough against the run. Last week, Nick Chubb became the first running back to surpass 50 yards rushing on the Ravens this year – he managed 52 yards on 16 attempts.
Will Williams do what or break your week 9 list?
Although the efficiency stats favor McLaughlin, who holds the advantage in rushing yards per attempt per attempt according to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos trust Williams more in pass protection and receiving work, which could soften the blow of what it should be a low meter day. in a terrible confrontation. The running game could be abandoned, and Williams could rely on check-downs to save his fantasy output.
But a player whose production depends solely on checks is a high-risk, low-reward play.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders offense is shaky at best. Aside from Brock Bowers, we’re usually very careful to lean toward Vegas fantasy assets. However, Meyers is a player who is widely overlooked.
The destitute nature of the Raiders’ quarterback situation masks the fact that Meyers actually had a decent season. Meyers currently has the WR30 average in fantasy points per game at 10.4 — which might not seem like much, but for perspective, it’s similar to players like Zay Flowers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and DJ Moore .
Meyers had an overall good year; it just doesn’t have that brand name. In games without Davante Adams, Meyers saw a small increase in volume, but it was difficult to gauge because the games were against Cleveland, Denver and Kansas City. He gets a much-needed break this week in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Will Meyers do what or break your week 9 list?
The Bengals defense has been a little all over the place, but they are vulnerable through the air. Despite how inconsistent the Bengals offense has been, I fully expect them to take advantage of this matchup, forcing the Raiders to give up the run and push the volume through the air. This week combines the perfect script for volume and a good matchup that could easily lead to Meyers’ best performance of the year.
Technically speaking, there is little chance that Meyers will actually crack your list. Even with the quarterback struggles, his target rate ensures that a sub-five-point fantasy performance is unlikely. However, with the cap rising this week, you should lean towards the high opportunity.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Welcome back to the make or break list, Chase Brown!
We missed you, and honestly, you probably never should have left. Watching the Bengals backfield this season has been one of the most frustrating experiences for me personally. Brown’s progression was expected. I knew Zack Moss was seen as the leader and Brown started the season taking a backseat to him. The vision here was that as the season progressed, Brown would continue to progress, potentially surpassing Moss and eventually ascending as the Bengals’ leader.
Unfortunately, Brown’s rise seems to have stalled at a level he just can’t get past, in large part because the Bengals refuse to phase Moss out. Their reluctance is puzzling — perhaps they don’t want to overwhelm either back — but the advanced stats clearly favor Brown. He has a higher rush yardage rate than expected at 41.6% (Next Gen Statistics), while Moss sits at a modest 28.6%. Brown also boasts a respectable 4.6 yards per carry compared to Moss’ 3.3. Neither back holds a significant advantage in receiving work from the back, leaving us in a sort of no man’s land where neither has a high ceiling unless the other suffers an injury.
Will Brown do what or break your week 9 list?
In an ideal matchup, both defenders could have an advantage. We saw it in Week 4 against Carolina, where Brown had 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Moss added 51 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown. This week, the matchup is against a Raiders defense that has been generous on the ground, allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Goal line opportunities should be plentiful in this game.
If there’s a week for Brown to flash the ceiling we saw in Week 4, this would be it.
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Tight Caps: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars; Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know what you’re thinking, “But Tera, how can Engram and Otton be successful players when they’re literally top 10 in the final rankings right now?”
Well, we’re not here to talk about Engram and Otton as tight ends. We’re here to talk about them as make-or-break. flex options.
Yes! A double tight end strategy this week, one of my personal DFS favorites that can be applied just as effectively in leagues throughout the season.
Here’s the thing: If you picked someone like Travis Kelce or Trey McBride, you probably don’t have a secondary option on your roster. However, fantasy managers with Engram or Otton likely have other tight ends. If you drafted Engram, you planned for him to be your TE1, but had to field another option while he dealt with an injury. Maybe you took Tucker Kraft, so now you have two top 10 options.
If you have Otton, you probably didn’t draft him, but picked him recently, possibly because of your tight end’s poor draft performance or to capitalize on Otton’s upside.
Both players have the potential to be worthy flex options this week.
Will Engram and Otton do what or break your week 9 list?
With the widespread injuries to receivers this season, tight end double formations could become more common. I personally did Otton last week while starting Brock Bowers. We know Otton has significant upside and will likely be Baker Mayfield’s first look over the next few weeks. With Christian Kirk lost for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. dealing with an injury — though the latest update on Thomas suggests the injury is less serious than feared — Engram should see increased value this week. We saw the logic with Otton, but if you need supporting evidence with Engram, we can look to last season.
In 2023, we’ve seen ample evidence that Kirk’s absence creates an extreme advantage for Ingram. When Kirk was injured in Week 13 last season, Ingram exploded, becoming the overall TE1 between Weeks 13 and 18, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game. For context, that’s the same number George Kittle is averaging this season.
As for other positions, a 15.2 average would make Ingram WR7 or RB12 this season. His ceiling without Kirk is phenomenal. Otton and Engram are in play as strong flex options that could make your lineup this week.
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