A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers that deserve a closer look.
Yes… Numbers lie.
Josh Downs’ 58.5 receiving yards per game is a lie
Downs ranks 32nd in receiving yards per game, but gets a major fantasy boost with the Colts moving on Joe Flacco. Downs ranks first in catches per game (9.0) and fourth in route yards with Flacco this season. He was also the fantasy WR5.
Downs is a legitimate route runner who is also a Reception Perception favorite. He ranks 13th in ESPN’s Open Score despite returning from a high ankle sprain earlier this season. Indy receivers are about to see improved intermediate accuracy and increased volume; The Colts have averaged 17 more passes during the games Flacco has started this season. He gets a funnel-pass Vikings defense this week that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and 12 TD passes in the last four games. Downs missed Wednesday’s practice, but it was likely a rest day after working through a toe injury last week.
I have Downs in the top-15 WR this week.
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Baker Mayfield’s 21 touchdown passes are a lie
Mayfield has been fantastic this season and leads the league with four TD passes. But regression is coming, especially with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. Mayfield’s 7.4% TD rate is well above the league lead and well above his career mark of 4.9%. He undoubtedly benefits from frequent throws inside the 10, but he’s also incredibly hot; Mayfield has attempted just five more passes in the red zone than Matthew Stafford, who has 14 fewer TD passes. Tampa Bay has scored a touchdown on 68 percent of its red zone opportunities this season, ranking third in the NFL.
Evans is likely out until at least Week 12, and Godwin is lost for the regular season, leaving Cade Otton as his top receiver. Mayfield was able to overcome the loss of his star last week, but his next game in Kansas City is much more difficult; The Buccaneers have the team’s lowest rushing total this week (17.5 points) against a Chiefs defense with the third-highest pressure rate. Mayfield will crush his career high in touchdown passes this season, but his scorching pace is sure to drop going forward.
Chris Olave’s WR46 rank is a lie
Olave’s fantasy scoring per game is tied with Quentin Johnston and Jalen Tolbert this season, but his fantasy arrow is pointing up. He had 14 targets returning from injury last week, leading the league in WOPR against a Chargers secondary that previously had not allowed a WR to record eight targets or 100 yards in any game this season. Olave recorded a 37% target share and a 40.6% first read target rate during his first game without Rashid Shaheed this season. Shaheed is tied for eighth most yards in the league, and New Orleans is extremely thin at WR with Bub Means and Cedric Wilson also injured.
Furthermore, Derek Carr is expected to return this week. He’s a significant upgrade over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who posted above-expected completion percentages in the third and tenth percentiles last week. The Saints have a healthy projected punt total (26.5) against a Panthers defense that has thrown an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes. Carolina also has a low pressure rate in the league, and Carr was twice as likely to target Olave when not pressured.
Olave is WR46 so far this season, but he is my WR12 this week.
Tyreek Hill’s WR42 rank is a lie
Hill was a big fantasy disappointment, but he’s poised to drop his ADP with Tua Tagovailoa back. Hill averaged 55.3 receiving yards with zero touchdowns in eight games without Tagovailoa in Miami, but is averaging 107.3 receiving yards and has 21 touchdowns in 32 games with he (with RotoViz). Hill averaged twice as many fantasy points with Tagovailoa on the court.
Furthermore, Hill has seen a 28% target share from Tagovailoa this season, while Jaylen Waddle has seen a reduced 15% share. The Dolphins went from last to near first in neutral pass rush rate with Tagovailoa back last week, and Miami’s offense ranked first in plays per game (68) and pass attempts per game (40!) during the his three starts this season. Hill sat out Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury, but was likely to be rested after making it through last week.
Miami’s offense hasn’t looked as explosive this season, even with Tagovailoa, but the volume is there for Hill to be a top-five fantasy WR going forward.
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